Back to the Future: The Financial Manias of 1720, Oct. 2009 Speech to the Chicago Actuarial Association.

Latest Client Letter (May 20, 2010).

Seminar: Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility: Shareholder Value Implications for Finance, Operations, and Investment Decision Makers (August 2010)

       Detailed Seminar Notes   (a pdf file) Note: If hyperlinks that extend over more than one line do not work for you, you may have to cut and paste the full hyperlink into your browser

            Excel files used in seminar (below)

            Bernoulli Example.xls

            Kelly Geomean.xls

            Mean Comparison.xls

            Overbetting Can Lead to Ruin.xls

             Followup to the August 24/25 seminars

                          Q&A (a pdf file)

                          Deriving compound growth rate from the Kelly formula (Excel file)

Click here for important disclosures.